Introduction: Driven by consumer demands and cost drivers, DNOs are looking to make their networks more active. The use of automated switching, remote sectionalising, distributed generation, demand side integration and storage elements will allow network operation to become more flexible and more responsive to system conditions, which will increase the complexity of network operation, forcing system operators to be more active and make more operational decisions. The project developed new methodologies to enable formal understanding of the criticality of different operational configurations and the accuracy with which network parameters must be specified. In addition, it illustrated the value of an explicitly predictive indicator of the suitability of proposed changes in system operation.

Objectives: The aim of this project was to develop algorithms for calculating the risk to satisfactory network operation from the continued use of the elements of a distribution system. The calculations take into consideration significant levels of uncertainty surrounding both the condition of the individual assets and the overall configuration of the network. The measure of risk may characterise network performance in the near future.