Resilient Electricity Networks for Great Britain (RESNET)
National Grid Electricity System Operator
National Grid TO Innovation Team
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Innovation Funding Incentive
Gas Transmission Networks
National Grid has previously completed work on the weather related risks to
National Grid and how they may increase/ decrease with time. This work is
investigating the electrical systems ability to cope with the changes that climate
change will have on the electricity transmission system. This work not only aims
to incorporate the change in climate but also the change in supply and demand,
which is predicted, with changing climate and a growing population.
The proposal also states that it will model the network on a nodal basis to
enabling an investigation of the entire system.
This project is a result of an EPRSC research call on Climate change and was
awarded to the University of Manchester and the University of Newcastle, it
combines the system knowledge of Manchester Electrical Engineering
department with the Tyndale centre a leading centre on Climate change with
Newcastle Universities expertise in weather systems and structural knowledge.
The RESNET project is funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) to allow researchers from the
University of Manchester and the University of Newcastle to examine the future
resilience of the UK electricity network to climate change. The resilience of the
UK electricity network is being addressed on three fronts:
- Representation of changed performance of network components under
future climatic conditions (operational resilience): We shall use reported
datasets and models to construct performance curves of the system
components under a range of climatic conditions (e.g. transmission line
capacity for given ambient temperature). To represent the range of
performance for each component type, and capture uncertainties in
data, these will be presented as probability density functions.
Risk of failure modelling of components under extreme weather events
(infrastructure resilience): Fragility functions will be developed to
describe failure of energy infrastructure from weather related
phenomena (e.g. probability of transmission tower collapse as a function
of wind speed). Relevant loading variables will be specified for each
element and fragility functions subsequently established by (i) literature
review and analysis of past events (e.g. failure patterns during the 1987
storm) (ii) interaction with our stakeholder partners and (iii) finite element
analysis of selected components.
Whole system modelling: We shall develop quantitative estimates of the
effect of climate change on the day-to-day performance of the electricity
grid, first using the existing National Grid and one or more existing
distribution networks before analysing scenarios and adaptations from
other work packages. Monte Carlo simulations will be used for each
case with the difference in performance of the system between the base
case and the modified cases measured using the following criteria:
Increase in operating cost required to maintain the standard level of
service; Quantified demand response or load shedding needed to
maintain service; Probability of customer outages and expected energy
not served; Quantity of renewable energy spilled.
To address this dual challenge, the project will see the development of a
comprehensive approach to analyse, at the UK scale, the resilience of the
electricity network and the development of tools for testing adaptation measures
that enhance the resilience of the network. The project will explore adaptations
at a broad spatial scale and over extended timescales (2020, 2050 and 2080).