Load Forecasting Scenario Model
Chris Goodhand, Innovation Manager (01977 605641)
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Innovation Funding Incentive
Comms & IT
The development and delivery of a load growth model with improve Northern Powergrid's
distribution load estimates that materially increases the accuracy and
robustness of the demand forecasts compared with the current Northern
Powergrid method, will facilitate enhanced robustness of investment
planning decisions both internally and externally in the future.
Accounting for the cost of process development and implementation,
Northern Powergrid would experience savings in the order of 5% of a typical annual
reinforcement investment for the first five years of ED1.
This project is to develop a load growth scenario modelling tool for
Northern Powergrid’s (NPG) North Eastern and Yorkshire networks. The
tool will assist NPG’s scenario planning by giving an improved
understanding of the likely rate and spatial distribution of load growth
over the medium to long-term, when uptake of new low carbon
technologies (LCTs) is expected to impose significant challenges to
network operators. This tool will inform investment planning for the
latter stages of ED1 and beyond.
The tool will give insights into the rate at which LCTs are likely to be
connected to the network and the impact on electrical load of improving
energy efficiency in the domestic and commercial building stock. These
uptake rates will be developed from an understanding of the consumer
and their appetite for investment in new energy technologies, rather
than being predicated on scenarios that meet the UK’s carbon dioxide
reduction targets (the DECC uptake scenarios will also be incorporated
into the model for comparison and for consistency with the SGF
Workstream 3 model).