Aug 2013
Electricity Distribution
Load Forecasting Scenario Model
Aug 2013
Northern Powergrid
Chris Goodhand, Innovation Manager (01977 605641)
Click here to send a question to the contact.
Innovation Funding Incentive
Comms & IT
The development and delivery of a load growth model with improve Northern Powergrid's distribution load estimates that materially increases the accuracy and robustness of the demand forecasts compared with the current Northern Powergrid method, will facilitate enhanced robustness of investment planning decisions both internally and externally in the future.

Accounting for the cost of process development and implementation, Northern Powergrid would experience savings in the order of 5% of a typical annual reinforcement investment for the first five years of ED1.

This project is to develop a load growth scenario modelling tool for Northern Powergrid’s (NPG) North Eastern and Yorkshire networks. The tool will assist NPG’s scenario planning by giving an improved understanding of the likely rate and spatial distribution of load growth over the medium to long-term, when uptake of new low carbon technologies (LCTs) is expected to impose significant challenges to network operators. This tool will inform investment planning for the latter stages of ED1 and beyond.

The tool will give insights into the rate at which LCTs are likely to be connected to the network and the impact on electrical load of improving energy efficiency in the domestic and commercial building stock. These uptake rates will be developed from an understanding of the consumer and their appetite for investment in new energy technologies, rather than being predicated on scenarios that meet the UK’s carbon dioxide reduction targets (the DECC uptake scenarios will also be incorporated into the model for comparison and for consistency with the SGF Workstream 3 model).