Aug 2013
Electricity Distribution
Distribution Load Estimates Methodology
Aug 2013
Northern Powergrid
Chris Goodhand, Innovation Manager (01977 605641)
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Innovation Funding Incentive
Comms & IT
The project scope associated with this piece of work is to gain a deeper understanding of underlying historic demand trends of customers supplied by the Northern Powergrid Limited distribution networks so that their future needs can be better understood and forecast. The study will include assessment of historic data for the entire primary substation, supply point and grid supply point populations across both Northern Powergrid licences, thus covering the EHV-HV, EHV-EHV, 400kV/275kV/132kV-EHV and 132kV-HV substations; where EHV levels are typically 33kV and 66kV and HV levels are 11kV and 20kV. LV distribution substation loading is out of scope.
This project is to apply computational/statistical analysis tools and techniques to the available demand data with a view to identifying the presence or otherwise of underlying trends within the data itself or linked to other parameters. The details of the analysis required are left intentionally vague in order to permit a high degree of flexibility and interpretation.

This project is aimed at using a computational approach to undertake a forensic analysis of the available data to identify and analyse underlying demand trends. The key deliverable from this project is a fully documented new tool/model and process for forecasting demand which is materially more accurate/more robust to internal and external challenge than the present process.