Apr 2014
Gas Distribution
Long term demand forecasting for peak days
NIA_WWU_011
Complete
Apr 2014
Sep 2014
Wales and West Utilities
Bethan Winter / Helen Fitzgerald – Wales & West Utilities
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Network Innovation Allowance
None
Gas Distribution Networks
£90,029.00
  1. To develop forecasts of peak domestic demand for each of WWU’s 3 Local Distribution Zones (Wales North, Wales South, South West) based on changes from the peak demand seen in 2010 for winter 2014/15 taking in factors listed in the method section and any others identified

  2. To develop a method to forecast peak domestic demand for future years using the method developed in (1)

Out of scope

  1. Development of bottom up peak demand forecasting for the domestic market, the requirement is to model changes from 2010 not to model the 2010 demand and develop a forecast from that. Forecasts of consumption for the domestic market

To provide a sense check for our current peak demand forecasts and to develop an alternative approach to forecasting peak demand. This will enable us to operate the network more efficiently and may allow us to release NTS Exit Capacity that we are potentially holding unnecessarily and will avoid the need for unnecessary investment.

The production of forecasts with supporting methodology to demonstrate a defendable view for the next few years.

The delivery of a piece of software which is suitably developed / documented so as to be able to be used in future years with revised parameters if necessary.