Introduction: The development of distributed energy resources termed DER (such as wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro, landfill gas, CHP etc) will displace existing conventional methods of generation which historically have provided the necessary response characteristics to maintain the overall integrity of the network. The output of the DER is both variable and uncertain because of its intermittency. On the demand side too, uncertainties are growing due to changes in consumption patterns (e.g. with electric vehicles etc). This scenario is thus transitioning to a less predictable and more stochastic world.

 The most common form of analysis undertaken by any DNO for network planning is a load-flow study taking into account the maximum coincident load. With more DER (particularly wind and solar photovoltaic generation), the snapshot of the maximum coincident generation, will also become relevant for network planning. Currently carrying out a multitude of modelling analysis using half-hourly flows at each network point, for different types of DER and demand technology presents WPD with a scaling problem – doing this for an historical year is manageable, but trying to do this for forward planning purposes, using a further number of future energy scenarios would be impracticable using the current software. It is therefore imperative that new modelling capabilities are required to address these challenges.

It has been recognized that WPD will need to develop “forecasting future energy volumes across the network (under different scenarios) to highlight opportunities for flexibility, operability issues and to identify when strategic reinforcement will be needed” in order to facilitate its transition from DNO to DSO. The purpose of this project is to develop customer behaviour models for all types of demand, generation and storage that can be used as an input to the Energy Curtailment (and/or dispatch) Estimation techniques that WPD is developing. There are about 17,520 half-hours in a year; preferably this project will identify sufficient commonality that needs to be assessed to arrive at MWh figures for a year to perhaps several hundred. Specifically, this project will provide a more accurate visibility of future curtailment and potential for flexibility required under modelled scenarios.

Objectives: The main objective of the project will be the development of customer behaviour models for all types of demand, generation and storage that can be used as an input to the Energy Curtailment (and/or dispatch) Estimation techniques that WPD is developing.