May 2015
Electricity Distribution
The Prediction of Weather-Related Faults
May 2015
Aug 2016
UK Power Networks, Eastern Power Networks, London Power Networks and South Eastern Power Networks
Chino Atako
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Network Innovation Allowance
The aim of this project is to develop a model to enable us to forecast the impact of different weather conditions on our assets. The scope of the project will include analyses of low voltage and high voltage (up to 11kV) underground cable and overhead line faults, in relation to weather conditions, in the three license areas (EPN, LPN and SPN).

The key weather data that will be analysed will include: (1) precipitation, (2) wind speed and direction, (3) lightning and (4) ice accretion.

The objectives of the project are to:

  • Improve understanding of the relationship between weather and faults (including ice accretion and faults on the network.)
  • Develop a forecast model which estimates the frequency of daily precipitation and wind-related faults on the distribution network (LV, HV) for each individual licence area.
  • Identify areas which are more susceptible to lightning than others and develop a model if a reasonable relationship can be found.
  • Reduce operational costs due to non-utilisation of standby staff
  • Reduce Customer Minutes Lost
Success criteria for the project are defined below:

(1) Better correlation between observed number of faults and the forecast impact of weather condition on faults.

(2) A reduction in non-utilisation of staff on standby