Aug 2019
Electricity Distribution
SAFE-HD (Spatial Analysis of Future Electric Heat Demand)
Aug 2019
Apr 2021
SP Energy Networks and SP Distribution
Gavin Montgomery
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Network Innovation Allowance
ED - Transition to low carbon future
Heat Pumps
Electrifying a large amount of heat demand is expected to impact future network infrastructure due to the scale and seasonal nature of heat demand. This project aims to develop and apply methods to explore optimal decarbonisation pathways to determine likely future heating technology mixes against a backdrop of policy, cost and demand uncertainties.
Package 1:

Phase 1 - Geospatial Analysis:
Generate high spatial resolution heat energy demand estimates based on actual energy consumption data and investigate how these heat demands relate to type of heating system, dwelling characteristics and social demographics.
Characterise households by their behaviour and attitudes towards alternative heating technology uptake.
Phase 2 – SAFE-HD Model:

Develop the SAFE-HD agent based model and explore the spatial distributions of future electric heat demand under uncertainty.
Phase 3 – Network Impact Assessments:

Conduct network impact assessments with the aim of identifying least regret network investment options required.
Recommend how the tools and methods developed for the SAFE-HD project can be used by all DNO’s.
Package 2:

Extrapolate individual LCTs effect on ADMD.
Assess the impact of heat pumps and electric water heating in off gas grid areas.