Nov 2019
Gas Distribution
Peak Power Forecast
Nov 2019
Feb 2020
Colin Thomson, Energy Futures Manager
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Network Innovation Allowance
GD - Future of gas
Gas Distribution Networks
This essential research into the potential scale and impact of embedded electricity generation likely to be connected to SGN’s network. The innovation is using electricity capacity market analysis methods to determine the likely scale of peaking plant in our footprint. This will be based on a review of the capacity market behaviour, analysis of the attractiveness of investment in the different technologies regionally with consideration of the shortfall in energy capacity identified in the FES scenarios. Novel techniques proposed potentially provide an innovative method for demand forecasting are not certain of success but will likely inform our proposed uncertainty mechanism in GD2.
The specific objectives for this project are to:

·         Establish the requirement of new flexible capacity

·         Establish the future of the Capacity Market and the impact on GDN’s

·         Establish the changes to capacity that would be required to accommodate any current gas demand shortfall

·         Establish the regional development of gas capacity and future considerations, such as connection charges the estimated number of peaking power in SGN’s footprint.
This critical research and development project into peak power forecasting is a requirement as part of the pathway to decarbonisation and the outcomes and outputs from the project will be support the GD2 business case submission. The reporting will provide key information into the future analysis of capacity of peaking plants, the impact this will have on demand and the GB capacity market and an analysis of regional development of gas capacity. The actions required to accommodate changes in demand for electricity generation can then be established.
This project will:
- Determine the likely scale of peaking plant in our footprint
- Ensure appropriate asset investments can be made by SGN
- Ensure security of supply for customers that is safe and cost-effective.
- Provide insight into what changes to capacity would be required to accommodates shortfall in gas demand for electricity generation.