Introduction: Outage planning is currently based on a worst-case scenario for each outage. There is limited accounting for the potential impact of increasingly changing system conditions (generation, weather, etc.) or of changes to one outage as a result of other outages. This has historically been done using “rules of thumb”.
With the rapid pace of change, the current planning methods are starting to show their limitations. In particular, a lot of work is devoted to reacting and re-planning.
This project will provide added value by providing a solution to the imperative need for better integration of risk estimation into the planning optimization so that the amount of work remains manageable for the NAP process.

Objectives: The ultimate objective of this project is to develop a tool that

1. facilitates the most efficient economic decision-making from the year-ahead plan to three-weeks ahead, and
2. identifies and tracks risks from year-ahead to day-ahead.