National Grid Electricity System Operator
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Network Innovation Allowance
ET - Network improvements and system operability
Comms & IT and Control Systems
The uncertainty that Control Room (CR) engineers must handle in their decision-making is growing rapidly due to increases in renewable and embedded generation. At the same time, the CR has seen a huge rise in the number of units involved in their balancing decisions (from 40 to over 1,000). It is inevitable then, that the costs of balancing the grid has also been rising and will continue to do so until an approach is adopted which allows CR engineers to effectively manage uncertainty. It is believed that if information about forecast uncertainty was presented in real-time to CR engineers, that this would provide opportunities for them to make more economic and secure balancing decisions.
Objective 1: provide insight into the cost impacts of the forecast errors. Allowing NGESO to prioritise schemes for improving forecasting accuracy and managing uncertainty in future, such as those which will be suggested as outputs from Workstream 2 of this project.
Objective 2: prototype enhancements to the current Control Room capability in managing uncertainty by developing visualisations of forecast errors and their associated cost impacts (REACT PoC).
Objective 3: show how existing point forecasts can be extended to produce probabilistic forecasts for demand and wind
Objective 4: demonstrate that using probabilistic forecasts can lead to more efficient decisions.