Oct 2019
Electricity Transmission
Study of Advanced Modelling for Network Planning Under Uncertainty
Oct 2019
Aug 2020
National Grid Electricity System Operator
Jason Hicks
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Network Innovation Allowance
ET - Network improvements and system operability
The overall aim of this project is to identify potential alternatives and opportunities for new planning methodologies that evaluate both technical and economic aspects in a more integrated manner and introduce flexibility and risk awareness in dealing with large-scale planning uncertainty.
The project will undertake the following objectives:
  • Review/identify issues with the current deterministic planning processes and standards
  • Review the state-of-the-art methodologies for energy system planning under uncertainty
  • Review/identify issues with the current (i.e., one snapshot-based) technical modelling used in planning
  • Outline a general decision-making framework for planning under uncertainty, e.g., to inform/extend the current NOA process
  • Define the key and most desirable elements and methodological options for such a framework, for example based on stochastic optimization, decision theory techniques, and risk analysis.