Aug 2016
Gas Distribution
Re-Defining Failure
Aug 2016
Mar 2017
Northern Gas Networks
Keri Bunnell (NGN) – Project Manager
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Network Innovation Allowance
Gas Distribution Networks
This project intends to undertake Phase 1 of a potential two phase project.

The scope of this phase encompasses two work packages, the second of which is split into part a and b. Work Package 1 is concerned with summarising the state of the art approaches to statistical modelling of failure for maintainable assets.

Work Package 2a considers the modelling of asset reliability at component and site / system level of detail and Work Package 2b concerns the statistical modelling of asset fault states to arrive at a range of fault probabilities.

A potential Phase 2 would encompass a further two work packages that may be delivered if it is considered that they provide additional value over Phase 1 and extend the understanding of fault propagation and impacts through network connectivity modelling. This would be delivered as a separate project.

The objectives of this phase of work across work packages 1 and 2 are to:

  • Establish a cross-utility understanding of asset failure
  • Produce a clear and actionable definition of failure that accounts for asset maintenance
  • Produce an independent peer review of good practice in deterioration modelling techniques and relevant statistical analysis
  • rovide a fundamental resource and key dataset which is software agnostic and builds NGN capability
  • Use an innovative dynamic representation of equipment/component level replacement/maintenance to enable ‘what-if scenario’ analysis
  • Demonstrate the connection of models to understand within-site redundancy and failure cascades
  • Establish quantitatively true failure rates for assets not run to failure considering maintenance programs
  • Demonstrate the ability for rapid scenario analysis to inform investment, maintenance and resource planning to result in an improved maintenance resource utilisation
  • Establish a key stepping stone that would allow future integration of a systems approach to optimising asset investment and maintenance
The project will be deemed successful, if

  • Knowledge on advanced statistical modelling approaches to the NGN project team has been transferred

  • Statistical modelling approaches that can be integrated with existing and future systems/tools have been delivered

  • The potential benefit of application of advanced statistical modelling approaches developed through the project has been quantified