Jan 2015
Gas Distribution
Off-Take Reform / Alarm & Demand Management
NIA_NGN_066
Complete
Jan 2015
Jun 2017
Northern Gas Networks
Keith Owen
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Network Innovation Allowance
None
Gas Distribution Networks
£39,627.00
This project seeks to identify and determine if past data can be used to create profile demands for weekends and bank holidays. As well as analysing specific data sets to see if any patterns appear which enable us to better forecast demand and indicate the health of our assets. We will do this by using the following:

  • Where possible use seven years of data for broadest comparable data

  • Use as many as 23 off takes for more accuracy and determine to patterns and analyse erratic off takes to create a full picture of the behaviour

  • Using such broad range of different types of off takes and covering data from 23 sites we are covering up to 95% of the different sizes in U.K

  • Data sets we have provided are specific to the requirements we are wanting.

·         Deliver a statement on data supplied by xoserve regarding suitability for use on holiday and weekend factors.

·         Provide an independent review on accuracy of the data with recommendations on suitability of models to determine these factors.

·         Provide techniques they have used for evaluating existing profile data sets and determine if it is accurate for use in profiling demand.

·         Provide an clear assessment of alarm management data and provide evidence of statistical patterns, should these exist in the data, along with commentary.

·         Generate a modelling technique that can accurately profile a pressure controlled offtake and be specific to each individual site.

·         Produce a control algorithm to support accurate control of offtake regulators

  • Produce a more accurate demand profile enabling an improved security of supply and better informed supply/demand balancing

  • Better informed investment strategies in GD2 if analysis done alarm data indentifies that certain assets are generating errors

  • Improved management of pressure controlled offtakes

  • Improve performance of UK Gas Balancing – Primary System Capacity – improved within day performance resulting in reduced penalties to shippers.