Introduction: The scope of the project includes the following:

• To undertake a comprehensive assessment of the methodology used for generating year-ahead gas demand forecasts

• Independently evaluating the existing methodology, by conducting an exhaustive review of all steps and testing all assumptions

• Exploring potential enhancements to the existing methodology based on sound mathematical and statistical methods, with a view to improving forecasts of annual gas demand and 1 in 20 peak demand

• Providing an insight into and understanding of the technical basis of the year ahead gas demand forecasts, with a view to underpinning their confidence in the use of the forecasts for making 2014/15 year-ahead gas capacity bookings.

Objectives:

The aim of this project is to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the methodology used for generating year-ahead gas demand forecasts.  To identify enhancements and support scoping the future demand scenario and forecast requirements.

Expected Benefits: Success of this project will be a comprehensive assessment of the methodology used for generating year-ahead gas demand forecasts having been successfully carried out and an output report produced to detail the findings and recommendations for suggested enhancements that can be carried forward for implementation.