Apr 2014
Gas Distribution
Review and Validation of the current gas demand forecasting methodology
NIA_NGGD0030
Complete
Apr 2014
Dec 2014
National Grid Gas Distribution
Lorna Millington – Project Manager, Andy Newton - Innovation Portfolio Manager
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Network Innovation Allowance
None
Gas Distribution Networks
£139,480.00
The scope of the project includes the following:

  • To undertake a comprehensive assessment of the methodology used for generating year-ahead gas demand forecasts

  • Independently evaluating the existing methodology, by conducting an exhaustive review of all steps and testing all assumptions

  • Exploring potential enhancements to the existing methodology based on sound mathematical and statistical methods, with a view to improving forecasts of annual gas demand and 1 in 20 peak demand

  • Providing an insight into and understanding of the technical basis of the year ahead gas demand forecasts, with a view to underpinning their confidence in the use of the forecasts for making 2014/15 year-ahead gas capacity bookings.

The aim of this project is to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the methodology used for generating year-ahead gas demand forecasts.  To identify enhancements and support scoping the future demand scenario and forecast requirements.

Success of this project will be a comprehensive assessment of the methodology used for generating year-ahead gas demand forecasts having been successfully carried out and an output report produced to detail the findings and recommendations for suggested enhancements that can be carried forward for implementation.