Oct 2013
Gas Distribution
Demand Scaling
Oct 2013
Mar 2014
National Grid Gas Distribution
Marcus Sharpe – Project Manager and Andrew Newton – Innovation Portfolio Manager
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Network Innovation Allowance
The scope of this project includes:

Stage 1: Development of a basic proof-of-concept statistical demand modelling tool. This will model loads based on DDS Tags, and provide Validation day Scaling Factors for two example networks. This will include both standard model output (in the form of Scaling Factors) and detailed node-by-node diagnostic data, which together will allow assessment to determine if there is value in further developing the scaling model for use in the business. If the assessment of these example networks is that the model produces usable results in principle, the project will proceed to Stage 2, described below.

Stage 2: Development of a functioning prototype spreadsheet including both demand modelling and scaling functionality.

The aim of this project is to create a proof-of-concept off-peak demand model for below 7 bar networks, along with algorithms for scaling these demands to peak. In addition, a working prototype spreadsheet tool containing these models will also be produced. 

Both the demand model and the scaling model will use selected consumer data from DDS and produce output in the form of Scaling Factors, with one set representing validation day demand and a further set for 1:20 peak demands.

If successful this will enable delivery of a consistent, robust and transparent demand model tool capable of providing a method of extrapolating from a validation condition to the 1 in 20 peak six minute demand condition. This could potentially be further developed to extend the use of the tool and to implement the software within business systems, such as GBNA.

Success of this project will be the development of a new peak demand model that is proven to be consistent and readily applicable to network models.