Aug 2015
Electricity Transmission
PV Monitoring Phase 2
Aug 2015
Aug 2017
National Grid Electricity System Operator and National Grid Electricity Transmission
Jack Barber
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Network Innovation Allowance
Low Carbon Generation, Modelling, Distributed Generation, Photovoltaics and Electricity Transmission Networks
Development of a solar estimation model, a data provision service and its integration into National Grid forecasting operations.

The project will be delivered over two years with the following objectives:

  • Develop methodology for using metered generation data from a sample of solar sites to estimate total GB solar generation. Establish a good understanding of the local variation of solar generation and the confidence levels in the estimation. Use methodology to develop a historic estimate of output for testing against observed National Demand data.
  • Use developed methodology to calculate an estimate of real-time estimation of GB solar output at half hourly resolution. Establish a real-time data feed providing GB estimate to National Grid for operational use. Continue to test and train national model.
  • Develop methodology for a higher geographic resolution model, investigating the benefits of using additional variables such as weather data to enhance outputs. Develop historic estimates for testing outputs against GSP metered data.
  • Use enhanced methodology to provide real-time estimates of solar generation at a regional level.
  • Develop National Grid based solution as operational backup.
  • The project will provide a methodology for using sample data to predict national and regional solar generation

  • The project will establish a live data feed of national and regional solar generation with National Grid. Data will be integrated into National Grid’s electricity forecasting operations.