The project will be delivered over two years with the following objectives:

• Develop methodology for using metered generation data from a sample of solar sites to estimate total GB solar generation. Establish a good understanding of the local variation of solar generation and the confidence levels in the estimation. Use methodology to develop a historic estimate of output for testing against observed National Demand data.
• Use developed methodology to calculate an estimate of real-time estimation of GB solar output at half hourly resolution. Establish a real-time data feed providing GB estimate to National Grid for operational use. Continue to test and train national model.
• Develop methodology for a higher geographic resolution model, investigating the benefits of using additional variables such as weather data to enhance outputs. Develop historic estimates for testing outputs against GSP metered data.
• Use enhanced methodology to provide real-time estimates of solar generation at a regional level.
• Develop National Grid based solution as operational backup.
   

• The project will provide a methodology for using sample data to predict national and regional solar generation

• The project will establish a live data feed of national and regional solar generation with National Grid. Data will be integrated into National Grid’s electricity forecasting operations.