Introduction: There is a spectrum of possible model enhancements that NG might contemplate to model interconnector flows. The prevailing treatment fixed price within ELSI is at the simple end of the spectrum, whereas the fully specified model which forecasts system marginal price of each European member state is at the other extreme. Between these two extremes, we sketch out below a number of options:

1. Modelling of thermal supply/demand in mainland Europe. The power markets to which GB is connected could be represented more fully in ELSI, representing each with a simple supply curve and hourly (or half hourly) demand, while not pursuing a fully specified dispatch.

2. Modelling of the impact of RES. Undertake a correlation analysis of RES (Renewable Energy) output, demand and interconnector flows across (at least) GB, France and the Netherlands (could extend this to include Belgium and Germany). Use this analysis to develop a “richer” assessment of interconnector flows given demand/RES output for use in ELSI.

3. A combination of 1 and 2 together.

4. Fuller modelling of thermal and RES in mainland Europe. Finally, a more complete modelling of interconnected regions (both thermal and RES) could be included in ELSI.

The overarching scope of the project is to improve interconnector modelling in ELSI, which allows users to calculate system marginal price of member states in Europe, in a similar way as the GB. The detailed scope of the project will be agreed through competitive tendering, which will result in selection of the preferred consultancy to deliver the project. The detailed scope can be made available at a later date.

Objectives:

The key objectives of the project are:

• Enhance open source modelling of operational cost implications of interconnectors
• Ensure that the improved model can be easily expanded to include new interconnector projects as they get developed, and details regarding impacted markets
• Test the model for selected TYNDP 2016 projects
• Share the improved model with industry stakeholders e.g. regulator, TOs and developers.

Expected Benefits: Achieving the desired improvements within ELSI environment regarding interconnector modelling and being able to share the improved model with the key stakeholders in the industry in timely fashion will be the key success criteria of this project. Success is also defined as having a refined model and having completed Phase 1 pilot testing.