National Grid Electricity System Operator, National Grid Electricity Transmission and National Grid Gas Transmission
Stephen Marland & Tony Nixon
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National Grid have made continuing use of econometric methods to develop scenarios that support asset investment and maintenance processes. Such techniques assume that recent historical relationships between energy and economic growth remain a sound basis for future demand scenario development. As the energy market becomes increasingly subject to Government intervention policy such methods are becoming less reliable.
National Grid now make use of “bottom up” modeling for the residential scenarios, matching consumer to energy trends. Developing similar models for the commercial and industrial sectors remains a challenge due to the highly complex and numerous sub-customer groups and limitations on public data available for scenario development. In addition, there is an increasing focus is being placed on the geographical breakdown of demand. This is driven by changing consumer behaviours and technology take up alongside the increased capacities of embedded generation causing a more varied picture of demand across the country.
Enhancing our modeling capabilities and our understanding of the antecedents and consequences of demand both at a GB level and on a geographical basis would help us make more informed decisions regarding network investment. The provision of a better split of demand will also help in our stakeholder engagement, particularly; with our interactions with other networks (TO, DNO, GDNs) that aim to compare demand projections.
The approach is designed to take the best available techniques for developing various scenarios, collating best available data and developing new information to account for various complex inter-related market trends (economy, technology, social drivers) to provide a depth of analysis that will significantly enhance demand scenarios for these sectors.
Delivery of enhanced modeling capabilities. Similar models have been developed in house within National Grid and are proving highly
beneficial for the residential sector.
This proposal aims to enhance the process accuracy and confidence in subsequent downstream processes that influence National
Grid’s gas and power demand scenarios.