National Grid Electricity System Operator, National Grid Electricity Transmission and SP Energy Networks
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Low Carbon Generation
This project aims to establish the spare thermal capacity in overhead lines that exists as a result of the actual weather parameters compared to seasonal values, and forecast the capacity that will be available ahead of real-time. As such, operational decisions will
be able to be made which will reduce the cost of operating the system and potentially avoid or defer reinforcement works following the connection of new low carbon generation.
The project is being undertaken in partnership with Scottish Power Energy Network (SPEN), the University of Strathclyde and the Scottish Energy Technology Partnership (ETP) and builds on the IET Innovation Award-winning work undertaken with SPEN at the
University of Durham and the LCNF tier 1 project (SPT1001).
The scope of the project is to explore how Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) can be more widely exploited within various timescales, utilising historic weather data to estimate prevailing capacity along overhead line routes to establish:
- The suitability of applying to a variety of short term capacities,
- How to utilize DLR in longer timescales to make investment or operational planning decisions such as reinforcement works or contracting strategy,
- Investigate suitable risk factors to apply to forecast ratings at different timescales based on predictability of the weather forecasts ahead of real time.
The following success criteria have been established:
- Complete a comparison of the dynamic ratings methods that are described in published engineering literature and summarising the different features that are apparent from the literature.
- Develop a new statistical forecasting model that addresses wind speed, wind direction and temperature, quantifying the probabilities of particular forecast quantities being exceeded.
- Evaluate the use of enhanced dynamic ratings in particular GB power system contexts.